BLOG NUMBER 31.89
This El Niño winter forecast for 2026 points to one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with a wetter, stormier South and a milder, drier North favored through the season. Forecasters expect the pattern to strengthen into winter, though the exact regional impacts will sharpen as October and November data comes in.
As of September 2026, forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) are tracking one of the strongest El Niño events on record, and it is set to dominate winter weather across North America over the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific have climbed well above +2.0°C in the benchmark Niño-3.4 region, and CPC has placed the odds of a very strong event persisting through fall and winter at greater than 90 percent. For anyone planning around this winter’s weather, homeowners, travelers, farmers, and businesses in weather-sensitive industries alike, understanding what a historic El Niño actually changes, and what it doesn’t, is worth the ten minutes it takes to read this.
What El Niño Is, Briefly
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural, cyclical shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure that repeats every two to seven years. When the central and eastern tropical Pacific warms significantly above average, it reshapes the jet stream, the river of fast-moving air that steers storm systems across the globe. A strong El Niño typically pushes the southern branch of the jet stream farther south and keeps it more active, while weakening and lifting the northern branch. That single shift is responsible for nearly every seasonal pattern associated with El Niño winters.
Why This Event Is Getting So Much Attention
Most El Niño events are modest. This one is not. Forecast models place the peak Niño-3.4 anomaly potentially above +2.5°C to +3.0°C by the October to December period, a range that would rival or exceed the strongest events on record dating back to 1950, including the famous 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016 “Super El Niños.” That magnitude matters because, generally speaking, the stronger the ocean warming, the more forcefully the atmosphere responds, though as the sections below note, strength alone does not guarantee a textbook outcome. It is a big part of why this El Niño winter forecast is drawing so much attention from meteorologists this year.
The Classic El Niño Split: South Wet and Mild, North Warm and Dry
If this event behaves the way strong El Niños historically have, the country will see a fairly clear north-south divide this winter.
Across the southern tier, Southern California through the Gulf Coast and into Florida, forecasters are favoring above-normal precipitation, with some outlooks putting totals at 120 to 150 percent of normal in parts of the Southwest and Deep South. That translates into a wetter, stormier winter for a region that often struggles with drought, along with above-normal mountain snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, a welcome sign for California’s water supply heading into next summer.
Across the northern tier, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Plains, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, the pattern typically flips. Temperatures are favored to run two to five degrees above normal, and precipitation is expected to come in below average, roughly 70 to 85 percent of normal in the Pacific Northwest and upper Midwest. One practical consequence: lake-effect snow machines around the Great Lakes, which depend on cold air masses colliding with open water, are likely to underperform compared with a typical or La Niña winter.
The Caveats Worth Taking Seriously
A strong El Niño is not destiny. The 2023 to 2024 event, the fourth-strongest since 1979, produced an unusually weak connection to North American weather patterns, delivering a milder and less dramatic winter than its ocean temperatures alone would have suggested. Forecasters are flagging similar uncertainty this year: unusual marine heat waves in the north-central Pacific and off the coast of Mexico could interact with El Niño’s signal in ways that shift or blur the storm track, and the behavior of the polar vortex over the Arctic, which is only loosely tied to ENSO, can still deliver sharp, short-lived cold outbreaks even in a warm, El Niño-dominated winter. Most agencies, including AccuWeather, are holding their most specific regional predictions until October, when several more weeks of data will sharpen the picture.
What This Means in Practical Terms
For residents of the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Southwest, this is a winter to plan for wetter conditions: more rain, a higher risk of flooding in flood-prone areas, and potentially heavier mountain snow in the Southwest’s higher elevations. For the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, and Great Lakes, it leans toward a milder, drier season overall, with lower confidence in any individual cold snap or snowstorm materializing on schedule. Ski resorts in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies may see a leaner season than average, while Southern California and the southern Rockies could see the opposite.
None of this rules out an occasional sharp cold outbreak or a major snowstorm even in a favored region, El Niño shifts the odds, it doesn’t eliminate the range of outcomes. The most reliable approach is to treat these outlooks as a lean toward one set of conditions over another, watch for updated regional forecasts in October and November as NOAA and IRI refine their numbers, and prepare accordingly rather than assuming any single pattern is locked in months in advance. Checking back on this El Niño winter forecast as the season progresses is the best way to stay ahead of it.
Sources
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
NOAA, “El Nino forms, expected to strengthen, say NOAA forecasters”
IRI/Columbia University, ENSO Forecast, August 2026 Quick Look
AccuWeather, “The 2026 El Nino could become the strongest in a lifetime”
The Watchers, “El Nino forecast to reach historic strength ahead of winter 2026-27”
CNN, “El Nino is headed for record-shattering intensity, NOAA says”
DISCLAIMER: Information contained in this Website and blog is intended for informational purposes only and do not necessarily reflect the direct opinions, views or practices of Swenson Consulting or its consultants. The individuals who maintain this blog work for Swenson Consulting. The information, comments and links posted on this blog do not constitute legal advice. No attorney-client relationship has been or will be formed by any communication(s) to, from or with the blog and/or the blogger. All decisions relating to the content of the website blog belong to the blogger and management company responsible for the blog for the purpose of aggregating relative industry specific information related to snow removal.